After the strong increase in aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange in previous months, they consolidated in November amid an unclear macroeconomic environment. The three-month aluminum contract traded in a range of 2,770 to 2,920 USD per ton and closed the month in the middle of the range at 2,840 USD.

As already announced in the last podcast, LME Week took place in London in mid-October. Market participants, analysts, and industry representatives gathered there to exchange views on current developments in the metals markets. The overall sentiment was clearly bullish for aluminum. Accordingly, the three-month aluminum contract also showed great strength and increased noticeably in October. Particularly after the announcement that an aluminum producer in Iceland was experiencing significant production cuts due to technical problems, the price rose sharply once again. At its peak, aluminum reached 2,917 US dollars per ton, the highest level in three years, and closed the month at 2,884 USD/ton.

In September, the three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange rose above the 2,700 US dollar mark for the first time since March, but was unable to maintain that level until the end of the month and closed just below it. In the meantime, expectations for US interest rate cuts increased with weak economic data, but additional demand in the area around new data centers and their power supply is also creating better prospects.

In July and August, the market showed somewhat calmer conditions overall, partly due to seasonal factors during the summer and vacation period. However, a significant uncertainty factor remained the US President's policy. In particular, his ongoing conflict with the Fed repeatedly caused significant fluctuations.

The three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange continued to recover in June. One reason for this is the weakness of the US dollar, which causes dollar-denominated commodity prices to rise. Additionally, the tense situation in the Middle East is creating uncertainty in supply chains – particularly for aluminum as well. On Monday morning after the US airstrikes in the Middle East, the aluminum contract reached a new three-month high of 2,654.50 US dollars per ton amid low liquidity. At the end of the month, it closed at around 2,600 US dollars, approximately 150 dollars more than at the beginning of the month.

In May as well, the aluminum market remained heavily influenced by U.S. trade policy. Following a successful trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States, the U.S. and China also agreed to significantly—and more than expected—reduce their mutual import tariffs for an initial period of 90 days.

In the first half of April, the 3-month aluminum contract on the LME remained under pressure due to the tariff policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, dropping to a low of USD 2,300/ton on April 9. As the tariffs were postponed, aluminum prices recovered. Over the course of the month, the contract traded within a range of more than USD 250/ton and closed at USD 2,460—around USD 100/ton below the level at the beginning of the month.

The aluminium market remained volatile in March. At the beginning of the month, a weaker US dollar boosted the value of commodities traded in dollars. Aluminium gained significantly in this environment, reaching a high of 2,726 USD per tonne in early March. In mid-March, the previously announced US tariffs came into effect: 25 percent on aluminium imports. The global trade conflict escalated further, with some affected countries responding with counter-tariffs. As a result, market uncertainty increased, accompanied by growing concerns over a potential recession. In this climate, the 3-month contract on the London Metal Exchange declined by the end of the month. Overall, the contract fluctuated within a range of around 200 USD per tonne in March and closed the month at 2,538.50 USD.

The global aluminium market continued to be dominated by geopolitical changes in February. After the first rumours circulated in January, the European Commission adopted the 16th sanctions package against Russia in February and completely banned the import of primary aluminium from Russia after a transitional phase in 2025. The aluminium 3-month contract on the London Metal Exchange reached a 3-month high of USD 2,730/tonne in mid-February, but was unable to maintain this and was trading almost sideways to January at USD 2,620/tonne at the end of the month.

January was marked by trade policy developments that impacted the aluminum market. Midway through the month, initial reports emerged about a potential EU import ban on Russian aluminum. This initially drove up prices for the LME 3-month aluminum contract. However, the proposed one-year transition period in the Commission's proposal, along with Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, which brought potential US tariffs back into focus, led to a slight decline in prices after reaching a high of $2,705 per ton. By the end of the month, the contract was about $50 per ton above its level at the beginning of the year.